October 06, 2015
Gold may be on verge of ‘breakout’ higher as ETF holdings rise
(Marketwatch)- Gold prices may be ready to make a significant move higher as holdings of the precious metal in the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund climb to their highest level in more than two months.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, -0.20% the world’s largest physically-backed ETF, stood at 689.2 metric tons, or about 22.16 million ounces on Monday, that is unchanged from the level on Oct. 1, but they’re up roughly 1% from the 682.59 metric tons seen a month ago and stand at the highest level since July 21.
“Short term, gold is trading in an increasingly narrowing symmetrical triangle, with support at $1,102 an ounce and resistance at $1,152 an ounce,” said Taki Tsaklanos, head of research at Secular Investor.
Gold for December delivery GCZ5, -0.15% settled at $1,137.60 an ounce on Comex Monday, up $1 or 0.1%. It rallied 2.1% on Friday as a disappointing U.S. jobs report hinted at the possibility of further delays of an interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
“Gold is close to a major breakout [higher] or breakdown, and we favor a breakout,” Tsaklanos said.
One of the key reasons for his upbeat outlook on prices is that “gold holdings of GLD ETF are steadily rising, suggesting a trend change.
Short positions in the ETF are also near their lowest point of the past few years and the ratio of put versus call options is nearing its lowest level since 2012, he said.
Mark O’Byrne, research director at GoldCore in Dublin, was also bullish on the outlook for gold prices.
He believes that gold may have “bottomed in the summer,” and could climb to as high as $1,300 an ounce by the end of this year.
And longer term, O’Byrne expects gold to “double in price and surpass its inflation-adjusted high of $2,500 per ounce in the next 3 to 5 years.”
The metal “remains undervalued when compared to assets such as stocks, bonds and property—all of which have surged in recent years,” he said.